Earlier this week, Ted Olson and David Boies, two of the nation's most talented and experienced litigators, filed a federal challenge to Prop 8 in a case called Perry v. Schwarzenegger. In response, they have been critiqued by a coalition of the nation's largest LGBT organizations, including the Human Rights Campaign and the National Gay and Lesbian Taskforce.
I can understand if you needed to read that twice.
One might think this development would be good news, and I argue that it is. But the national leadership of the LGBT movement, a coalition of organizations which I'll call the big ones, has sent a clear message: this challenge is doomed to fail and to set the LGBT movement back by years.
They are making a mistake. Whatever its outcome, this federal challenge is a game-changer and it has the potential to accelerate the movement's progress. It's a bold move and it brings to the table the talent and experience of two litigators who have logged ample hours arguing before the U.S. Supreme Court.
The big ones' primary objection is that this challenge flies in the face of their strategy, which involves incrementally winning equality on a state-by-state basis and, once we've reached a critical mass, taking a case to the Supreme Court. They say it's far too early for a federal case.
There's just one problem with this argument: there is no evidence that their strategy is working. To the contrary, it's going quite poorly.
The LGBT movement has relied on this incremental strategy since 2004. In that time,
anti-marriage amendments have passed in 30 states and we have won
marriage equality in just five states. The big ones played a leadership role in many of these 30 losses and they steered the "No on 8 campaign" to defeat in what has aptly been called campaign malpractice. I wouldn't trust these odds in any other part of my life -- medicine, law, aviation safety, or the NCAA bracket -- so why should we trust them with our civil rights?
Having a strategy is not the same as having the right strategy. Talented, passionate people choose the wrong strategy all the time, especially in politics. In these situations, group think often conspires against one of the fundamentals of good strategy and tactics: making adjustments as new data emerges. Look at Hilary Clinton's approach to the primaries. Look at the No on 8 campaign.
For years, I've tempered my critiques of the big ones. They do much good after all*, and at the end of the day they always seemed like our best shot at winning equality. But they have gone too far this time. Increasingly, these organizations seem like the American Auto industry: insulated, bloated, and weirdly resistant to innovation and new data.
The big ones may not fly private jets to DC, but there's plenty of fat even in the non-profit sector. Last year, for instance, the HRC spent 31% - or $13.8 million -- of its annual budget on fundraising and administrative costs. In 2007, the NGLTF spent 46% -- or $3.8 million -- on the same budget lines**. How is it possible to do that while still spending $45 million on a losing campaign? Enough Winter Parties. Enough t-shirts and boxer briefs with organizational logos on them. Enough celebrity endorsements. Enough.
What we need are nimble thinkers; lean organizing models that can be replicated in every community; a commitment to investing resources in those areas of the country where persecution is most acute; an aggressive, innovative, 50-state strategy; and an informed, open-arms approach when people like Olson and Boies are ready to bring more resources to the table.
The big ones should be joining forces with Olson and Boies. Instead, they are
trying to weaken grassroots support for this groundbreaking federal challenge. They are wagering that Olson and Boies will lose; the movement's progress will be crippled; and their incremental strategy will be vindicated. What a cynical view of the future before us.
The truth is that no one can accurately predict whether the Supreme
Court will agree to hear this case, much less how it will decide. Like
so much else in politics, even informed predictions are just guesses.
I may have to eat my words on this one. But I hope not. After all, if this challenge succeeds, it means marriage equality will be recognized at the federal level years earlier than was thought possible. Those odds are good enough for me.
* Some notable examples: GLAD and MassEquality are teaming up with equality organizations across New England to win marriage equality in the region at a breathtaking pace; and Lambda Legal and One Iowa showed boldness and acumen in winning marriage equality in Iowa.
**Sources: Annual Reports of the HRC and NGLTF, respectively. Available online.